Tantrix.com - Roll Out Competition

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Tantrix Roll Out challenge

The Roll Out Challenge

Win 500 Euros towards travel costs to any Tantrix Open by evaluating the game situation below. The following position is taken from a game between Mikem and Goodbot (GoodBot-22-Mikem-20-2007-12-17-0301). The game is on move 29, there are 15 tiles left in the bag, Red has just had his free turn. Your challenge is to guess the winning percentage as accurately as possible!

Assuming both players play optimally: "What is Red's chance of winning from this position?"

Explanation of Forced Space Notation

What is a Roll Out?

Roll Outs are used to analyse games combining skill & luck, such as Backgammon. A complex position can be "solved" by simply playing it again and again, either (tediously) between good players, or by a good robot program. As Tantrix robots are strong at the endgame (reduced uncertainties), rolling out endgame positions is easier than rolling out early or midgame positions. Choose a certain position and roll it out say 500 times. Assume Red wins 55% of the games. Double check the roll out by performing it twice, and check the % is the same. If the % varies, then the number of games needs to be increased. Simple!

How will the Roll Out work?

Good question! We won't know the full details until somebody develops the roll out program. For example, the roll out could be on or offline. We have to be convinced the program is as good as the current best robot or better. Ideally the position will be rolled out at least 1000 times. The program could play itself, or play against one or more human opponents of Master level. You are allowed to write a Tantrix roll out program which estimates the above winning percentage, in fact we encourage you to! Alternatively, give it your best guess...

Roll Out Rules

Only players who have played in a registered Table Tournament are eligible for the prize, although everyone may enter a vote.
Players may look at other players' votes and check on their own on the player details page.
The vote is Red's % chance of winning (draws are excluded). Up to one decimal place is allowed.
Max one vote per player (players full name, and city must be filled in on player details page to be eligible for the prize).
The prize is €500 of travel costs towards any Tantrix Open - the money must be spent on the transport component of the trip.
As soon as a roll out is possible, all votes will be frozen.
The roll out will be performed under the supervision of Tantrix HQ.
The winner will be the player whose vote is the closest. If there is a tie, the prize money will be shared.

Ready to Guess ?

If you are ready to guess, please enter it below. You may return at any time and change your guess, but if two people have the same correct answer, whoever guessed first will be declared the winner. If your guess has a decimal place, use a point as a separator, not a comma!

Expiration

If no acceptable roll out has been performed by the end of 2025, this competition will expire without a prize being awarded. So if you are interested in developing a roll out program, please contact us.

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